Most valuation tools are built to guess the sale price. Housify is built to tell you what a home should sell for.
A sale-price guesser watches the list price and lands close to it, which makes it accurate and useless at the same time: it can't tell you a listing is cheap if it assumes the listing is right. Housify never sees the list price. It values each home from the land up (location, water, view, structure, and the sales that actually compare), then compares its value with the ask. The gap between those two is the deal signal.
Anchors on the asking price and recent trades. It gets close to the sale price, so it can't tell you when the ask is wrong.
Values the home blind, prices it into a calibrated range, and ranks every listing by how far the ask sits below value. The result is a ranked list of buys and a list of homes to pass on.
Every active listing, every day, tiered Certified / Tracking / Fair / Overpriced, with alerts when a flag fires.
Parcel-level geospatial taxonomy: distance to open water, frontage type, rows back from the water, forever-view, cohort.
Which owners are likely to sell, which listings go pending next, which are about to cut price, and which will lag the market.
Deals, alerts and reports flow through a CRM built to each brokerage's brand and workflow. Corcoran Reverie's agents on 30A use it to send deals and market intelligence to their clients.
Our strongest-conviction calls don't just close well. They outperform after they close.
This is our strongest-conviction evidence, and the test that matters to a buyer. We take the top 2.8% of buys Housify flagged at the time they were bought, find the ones that later resold, and measure how much faster each one grew than the market over its own holding period, per year. If the flag only found homes that sold at the right price, this number would be zero. It isn't.
30A, single-family, buys 2020–26 that later resold (1,618 pairs). Top-flagged = the 2.8% of buys Housify valued furthest above the purchase price, valued walk-forward and list-blind. Annual alpha = the home's annual growth minus the market's annual growth over the same hold, median across homes. The PPSF tile is from the Certified-listing study (2022–26 buys, subject excluded from its own cohort).
Median annual growth of resold Elite-Certified homes vs the hedonic market index over the same holds, compounded over the median hold (30A: 17 homes, 1.6 years; Naples: 48 homes, 2.0 years).
Finding cheap homes is easy; finding the ones that go on to beat the market is not. So every result here is tested against the strongest simple rule we could build: value each home at the median price per square foot of recent sales in its own town, on its own kind of water, in its own row from the water, and rank buys the same way. That cohort median is what most valuation shortcuts amount to. If Housify were only spotting low prices, this rule would match it. It doesn't, and the gap widens the more selective you get.
Annual alpha of the top-ranked buys as the flag narrows. A real deal-finder improves as it gets more selective. A sorting rule doesn't.
Resale pairs; top 10% / 5% / 2.8% / 1.5% of buys by score, median annual alpha. Shaded = Housify's edge over the cohort-median rule. 30A: 1,618 pairs (2020–26 buys), directional. Naples: 4,760 pairs (2020–25 buys), statistically separated.
In Naples the sample is large enough to put confidence intervals on it, and they don't overlap the benchmark's.
| Top 2.8% of buys by… | Annual alpha | 95% CI | Total | Beat | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housify (served model) | +20.25 | 17.0–25.4 | +44.07 | 91.7% | 1.60 y |
| Placebo: town median | +11.10 | 6.9–16.7 | +28.24 | 83.7% | 1.94 y |
| Cohort: town × water | +11.77 | 7.4–17.7 | +24.40 | 85.1% | 1.89 y |
| All resale pairs | +1.56 | — | +3.90 | 58.0% | 2.34 y |
| Annual | 95% CI | Total | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housify | +14.84 | [12.30, 17.18] | +37.50 | [32.19, 41.32] |
| Cohort benchmark | +8.77 | [7.36, 10.68] | +24.62 | [19.49, 29.07] |
Naples, single-family, buys Oct 2020 – Nov 2025, walk-forward (each home valued only with data available before its sale). Alpha in %; annual = per year of hold.
Certified listings out-earned overpriced ones in every buy year, in rising, falling and flat markets.
Take every listing the way the product labelled it at the time, Certified, Tracking, Fair or Overpriced, and follow it to its resale. The product's labels go back to 2021 buys in Naples and 2022 buys in 30A. Through the 2022 turn, three flat years and the 2025 correction, Certified listings beat Overpriced ones on annual alpha and on hit rate in every buy year, in both markets. Before the labels existed, Housify's value against the price paid put deals ahead of overpriced buys in every 30A buy year from 2015 (data room, Tier ladder).
30A, before Certified labels
Naples
30A
30A
Recent buys still resolving
The product's own labels, applied to each listed buy with its list price and walk-forward values as they would have shown at the time, then scored on resale against a hedonic market index (Naples 2021–25 buys, 2,998 resold listings; 30A 2022–25, 516). Labels compare Housify's value with the asking price when the home listed; alpha compares the eventual resale with the price actually paid, net of the market. Dashed bars have fewer than 15 homes or a median hold under 1.25 years. The 2024–25 overpriced bars are a handful of homes resold within about a year, and a year of hold turns a few percent of gain into a large annual rate. Median annual alpha in % per year.
It also tells you what not to buy. Overpriced listings lagged the market; Fair ones landed near it.
Every resold listing carries exactly one label, the one the product would have shown when it listed. The returns step down with the label. For a buyer running 300 acquisitions a year, avoiding the bottom of the ladder is worth as much as finding the top.
| 30A · 2022–26 buys | Naples · 2021–25 buys | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Label, as shown on the listing | Annual alpha | Beat | Hold | n | Annual alpha | Beat | Hold | n |
| ★ Certified, Elite | +13.86 | 100% | 1.6 y | 17 | +16.41 | 91.7% | 2.0 y | 48 |
| Certified, all | +12.25 | 96.6% | 2.0 y | 58 | +8.10 | 82.6% | 2.0 y | 224 |
| Tracking | +7.43 | 90.3% | 1.9 y | 31 | +4.45 | 74.3% | 2.2 y | 210 |
| Great/Good on value, not Certified | +3.37 | 74.6% | 2.5 y | 63 | +2.30 | 62.1% | 2.2 y | 359 |
| Fair | +1.68 | 63.6% | 2.2 y | 242 | −0.17 | 49.0% | 2.4 y | 1,425 |
| Overpriced | −0.67 | 42.6% | 2.4 y | 122 | −1.84 | 39.1% | 2.5 y | 780 |
| All listed buys that resold | +2.65 | 65.3% | 2.2 y | 516 | +0.33 | 52.3% | 2.3 y | 2,998 |
Elite is a subset of Certified; every other row is exclusive. Annual alpha in % per year, median. 30A's 2022–26 window ran ahead of its hedonic index for most listings (65% of all resales beat it), so read each label against the "all" row: Fair sits below it, Overpriced well below. Definitions in the data room's Certified levels tab.
Label every listing on its first day, against its original asking price, then watch what the seller does. Listings Housify called Overpriced were cut by 5% or more four to seven times as often as Certified ones, and sold about 7.5% under their original ask. Certified listings sold at it.
| 30A · 3,614 listings | Naples · 26,385 listings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Label on day one | Cut 5%+ | Any cut | Sold vs original ask | Cut 5%+ | Any cut | Sold vs original ask |
| Certified | 4.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Tracking | 8.0% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 20.2% | −1.5% |
| Great/Good on value, not Certified | 8.2% | 15.6% | −1.3% | 12.4% | 24.1% | −2.2% |
| Fair | 17.2% | 30.3% | −3.5% | 18.8% | 36.2% | −3.7% |
| Overpriced | 31.6% | 44.3% | −7.5% | 37.0% | 49.8% | −7.7% |
Every listed sale with an original asking price, 30A 2022–26 and Naples 2021–25, labelled with Housify's leak-free walk-forward value against the original ask. "Cut" = original ask vs the final asking price before the sale. Labelling against the original ask matters: a listing that was cut ends with a lower final price, so labelling against the final price would hide the very cuts being predicted.
Every figure, with its sample, window and controls.
Every figure is walk-forward: each home is valued only with information that existed before it sold, the home's own sale is excluded from its comparables, and list price is never an input. Annual alpha is the home's annual growth minus the market's over the same hold, median across homes. Alpha figures were re-run on current data on October 1, 2026.
Shaded rows and columns are Housify's flagged deals. The rest are the control. Heavier lines separate each comparison.
The page's headlines use the product's labels (Certified levels tab). This construction compares each value with the price paid rather than the list price, which lets it reach further back than the product's labels.
| Market | Tier | n | Beat | Annual alpha | 95% CI | Total alpha | Median hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30A · 2015–26 | Great · value 10%+ above price | 463 | 66.7% | +2.02 | 1.7–2.7 | +7.76 | 2.67 y |
| Good · 5–10% above | 258 | 63.2% | +1.60 | 0.8–2.3 | +4.27 | 2.71 y | |
| Fair | 1,066 | 49.3% | −0.10 | −0.4 to 0.3 | −0.40 | 2.98 y | |
| Overpriced · value 10%+ below price | 485 | 39.6% | −1.14 | −1.6 to −0.7 | −5.44 | 3.14 y | |
| Naples · 2018–25 | Great · value 10%+ above price | 1,057 | 70.6% | +4.07 | 3.3–4.7 | +11.96 | 2.43 y |
| Good · 5–10% above | 547 | 59.6% | +1.28 | 0.7–1.9 | +4.10 | 2.76 y | |
| Fair | 2,742 | 49.2% | −0.10 | −0.3 to 0.2 | −0.31 | 2.82 y | |
| Overpriced · value 10%+ below price | 1,852 | 42.3% | −1.01 | −1.3 to −0.7 | −3.10 | 2.81 y |
The data room's P3 construction, restated on leave-one-out valuations (30A from 2015, Naples from 2018; 30A's 2015–19 values come from a new leave-one-out run on today's code, 2020+ from the earlier run). Renovations, flips, new builds and holds under six months removed; scores bounded −25% to +40%. Market drift = a hedonic index that adjusts for which towns and rows sold each quarter.
| 30A deals | 30A overpriced | Naples deals | Naples overpriced | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy year | Annual | Beat | n | Annual | Beat | n | Annual | Beat | n | Annual | Beat | n |
Cells marked * have fewer than 15 homes or a median hold under 1.25 years (short holds magnify annual rates). 30A from 2015 buys; Naples from 2018.
| Check | Tier | n | Beat | Annual alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Served champion's own values (2022–26 buys) | Deals | 105 | 79.1% | +4.17 |
| Fair | 161 | 53.4% | +0.47 | |
| Overpriced | 51 | 35.3% | −2.35 | |
| 30A-wide market index (ends 2025Q4) | Deals | 328 | 82.9% | +8.19 |
| Fair | 333 | 64.9% | +2.88 | |
| Overpriced | 142 | 45.8% | −0.70 |
The yardstick sets the level; the ladder holds on every one. A 30A-wide index doesn't adjust for which neighbourhoods sold, so it reads every tier higher. The hedonic index above is the standard we report.
| 30A · 2022–26 buys | Naples · 2021–25 buys | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Label, as shown on the listing | n | Beat | Annual | Hold | n | Beat | Annual | Hold |
| Certified, all | 58 | 96.6% | +12.25 | 2.04 y | 224 | 82.6% | +8.10 | 1.99 y |
| ★ Highest conviction (Elite) | 17 | 100% | +13.86 | 1.55 y | 48 | 91.7% | +16.41 | 1.98 y |
| ◆ Strong conviction | 9* | 100% | +9.18 | 3.28 y | 39 | 87.2% | +9.59 | 2.07 y |
| • Watch | 32 | 93.8% | +12.25 | 1.96 y | 137 | 78.1% | +6.13 | 1.95 y |
| Tracking | 31 | 90.3% | +7.43 | 1.92 y | 210 | 74.3% | +4.45 | 2.22 y |
| Great/Good on value, not Certified | 63 | 74.6% | +3.37 | 2.45 y | 359 | 62.1% | +2.30 | 2.20 y |
| Fair | 242 | 63.6% | +1.68 | 2.16 y | 1,425 | 49.0% | −0.17 | 2.35 y |
| Overpriced | 122 | 42.6% | −0.67 | 2.36 y | 780 | 39.1% | −1.84 | 2.50 y |
| All listed buys that resold | 516 | 65.3% | +2.65 | 2.18 y | 2,998 | 52.3% | +0.33 | 2.32 y |
Each resold buy carries exactly one label, applied with its list price and walk-forward values as the product would have shown them at the time. Certified: even the conservative low end of Housify's value range clears the asking price by 5–10%. Elite: the strictest version of that test, also passed by at least three of the four valuation methods on their own. Tracking: the range clears the asking price, but by less. "Great/Good on value" = Housify's value is 5%+ above the asking price but its range doesn't clear it. Fair excludes every deal and near-deal. Overpriced: value 10%+ below the asking price. Certified appears on 6–7% of listings and Elite on about 1–1.5%. Annual alpha in % per year, median. * thin cell (fewer than 15 homes). 30A's Elite and Strong counts are minimums: method values exist for about half its sales. Range widths were calibrated on recent years. Naples starts with 2021 buys: the champion blend has no walk-forward value for 2020Q4.
| Basis | Group | n | Annual alpha | Total alpha | Beat | Median hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) Resold · actual sale price | Flagged | 29 | +17.29 | +37.22% | 89.7% | 1.65 y |
| Every other buy | 1,591 | +1.04 | +3.21% | 55.9% | 2.37 y | |
| (b) Still held · today's Housify value | Flagged | 145 | +4.23 | +24.26% | 91.7% | 4.83 y |
| Every other buy | 5,346 | −0.57 | −1.99% | 42.3% | 3.96 y | |
| All buys · (a) + (b) | Flagged | 174 | +5.01 | +25.61% | 91.4% | 4.53 y |
| Every other buy | 6,937 | −0.41 | −1.36% | 45.5% | 3.38 y |
Flagged = the 2.8% of all 7,603 H5-valued buys where Housify value sat furthest above the price paid (41% or more above). (a) is realised: bought and later resold, scored on the actual resale price. (b) has not resold, so it is scored on the home's Housify value as of 2026-10-01. The same share of each group has resold (22.1% flagged, 23.1% everything else). Still-held homes mark lower than resold ones in both groups, and over longer holds. The values come from the same list-blind model, re-run each night against current sales rather than against its original call; where a later resale lets us check, it sits slightly below the price the market paid for flagged homes (−3.4%). With the structure unchanged and no permit in the hold: +4.86%/yr, 91.2% beat (n=136).
| Set | Group | n | Total alpha | Beat market | Median hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All resale pairs | Certified | 75 | +34.79% | 84.0% | 1.88 y |
| Not Certified | 2,597 | +6.56% | 61.1% | 2.54 y | |
| Structurally unchanged | Certified | 47 | +29.30% | 83.0% | 1.53 y |
| Not Certified | 1,906 | +3.20% | 56.1% | 2.41 y |
The longest 30A window: 266 of 9,498 sales flagged Certified (2.80%). 39 of 47 beat the market against a 56.1% base rate, one-sided binomial p = 9.5×10⁻⁵. Totals are over each pair's hold; this study's pair-level data wasn't retained, so its annual rate can't be computed. Read the median hold alongside the total.
| Subset | Group | n | Total alpha | Beat market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No renovation permit | Certified | 34 | +31.03% | 79.4% |
| Not Certified | 1,716 | +2.91% | 55.9% | |
| Permit present | Certified | 13 | +25.42% | 92.3% |
| Not Certified | 190 | +4.29% | 57.9% | |
| 2021+ buys, no permit | Certified | 22 | +31.03% | 81.8% |
| Not Certified | 703 | −2.86% | 44.1% |
Homes with no renovation permit did better than renovated ones, so improvements don't explain the alpha.
| Buy year | Certified n | Total alpha | Beat | Control n | Total alpha | Beat |
|---|
| Window | Certified n | Total alpha | Beat | Control n | Total alpha | Beat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2022 buys (excludes the turn) | 26 | +39.29% | 76.9% | 1,516 | +6.79% | 60.0% |
| 2023+ buys (the flat market) | 10 | +12.88% | 90.0% | 182 | +1.31% | 54.9% |
| Buy year | n | Annual spread | Total spread | Top-decile annual | Top-decile hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 507 | +7.87 | +36.24 | +5.99 | 2.38 y |
| 2021 | 1,979 | +8.58 | +30.82 | +5.43 | 2.75 y |
| 2022 | 1,179 | +12.81 | +29.84 | +10.74 | 2.33 y |
| 2023 | 695 | +6.29 | +11.69 | +8.68 | 1.92 y |
| 2024 | 313 | +27.08 | +39.94 | +29.60 | 1.37 y |
Naples, pipeline valuation, top decile vs bottom decile of buys by Housify's discount to value, within each buy year. Every year is positive. 2024 holds are short, which magnifies its annual rate.
| Score | Pairs scored | Annual alpha | 95% CI | Total | Beat | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housify flag | 1,618 | +16.97 | 12.5–24.2 | +43.10 | 91.1% | 1.66 y |
| Placebo: town median | 1,555 | +9.37 | 6.2–11.9 | +22.81 | 81.8% | 2.02 y |
| Cohort: town × water × row | 1,293 | +10.53 | 5.2–17.0 | +23.96 | 83.3% | 2.04 y |
| All pairs | 1,618 | +1.24 | — | +3.69 | 57.1% | 2.35 y |
| Market | Score | Top 10% | Top 5% | Top 2.8% | Top 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30A | Housify | +11.08 (25.6) | +16.40 (30.7) | +16.97 (43.1) | +17.13 (55.7) |
| Placebo | +7.39 (17.6) | +8.42 (19.5) | +9.37 (22.8) | +7.42 (23.0) | |
| Cohort | +9.14 (20.7) | +9.83 (19.6) | +10.53 (24.0) | +10.03 (25.7) | |
| Naples | Housify | +11.47 (28.5) | +16.51 (40.2) | +20.25 (44.1) | +21.11 (48.7) |
| Placebo | +6.84 (17.8) | +10.19 (24.0) | +11.10 (28.2) | +15.41 (32.7) | |
| Cohort | +6.90 (19.1) | +11.62 (24.2) | +11.77 (24.4) | +12.66 (31.4) |
| Market | Score | Annual spread | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30A | Housify | +13.76 | [10.89, 17.54] |
| Cohort | +11.49 | [8.34, 14.29] | |
| Naples | Housify | +14.84 | [12.30, 17.18] |
| Cohort | +8.77 | [7.36, 10.68] |
On 30A the intervals overlap at 1,618 pairs, so the comparison is directional there. In Naples they don't overlap.
| Step (one change at a time) | 30A n | Beat | Annual | Naples n | Beat | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product: Certified, Elite (blend + range vs list) | 17 | 100% | +13.86 | 48 | 91.7% | +16.41 |
| Top 2.8% by served blend vs list price | 14 | 92.9% | +14.33 | 84 | 86.9% | +14.62 |
| Top 2.8% by H5 vs list price | 14 | 100% | +16.27 | 84 | 84.5% | +17.22 |
| Top 2.8% by H5 vs price paid (the hero's rule) | 14* | 100% | +22.35 | 84 | 86.9% | +17.57 |
| Hero as quoted: every qualified resale, wider window | 45 | 91.1% | +16.97 | 133 | 91.7% | +20.25 |
Same listed resales in each step (30A 2022–26, 515; Naples 2021–25, 2,998). On the same homes, the ranking and the Elite label land within a few percent a year of each other. The hero's Naples figure is higher because it also ranks arm's-length sales that never listed (40 of its 133, at +34%/yr over about a year): the county qualifies every sale in the spine as arm's-length, and the model valued them blind. * 14 homes; interval runs to +72.
Ranking any noisy value against a price produces some spread on its own (mean reversion). We measured it with a permutation null (recorded 2026-09-01, total alpha). It explains 7% of the Naples spread and 31% of the 30A spread. The rest is signal. On 30A the engine's +25.7-point spread sat outside the null's +8.0 [3.7, 12.6].
| Decile | Housify annual | Total | Beat | Placebo annual | Total | Beat |
|---|
4,754 resale pairs, 2020–25 buys, pipeline valuation. Housify's annual alpha rises from −1.6 to +9.1%/yr across the deciles; the placebo's rises less and tops out at +6.4.
| Group | n | Median vs cohort PPSF | % below cohort | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Certified | 48 | −28.04% | 97.9% | −28.85 | −42.30 | −17.71 | −26.94 | −27.42 |
| Not Certified | 1,257 | +0.08% | 49.4% | +0.29 | −0.30 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.09 |
Cohort = same neighbourhood, row and quarter, the subject excluded, cells with ≥3 sales. The resale tests are the non-circular proof. This table shows the discount held steady through the flat 2025–26 market.
| Group | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Certified | 44.8% | 23.3% | 21.4% | 16.0% | 11.1% |
| Not Certified | 14.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% |
Certified listings drew over-list bids roughly 2–3× as often in every year. Both rows fall with the cycle, which is why resale alpha, not over-list rate, is the headline.
| Market | Window | n | Median | Within 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples | 2023Q1 – 2026Q1 | 18,165 | 6.8% | 65.2% |
| Naples | 2020Q4 – 2026Q1 | 34,896 | 7.3% | 63.1% |
| 30A | 2023Q1 – 2026Q1 | — | 7.75% | — |
| 30A | 2022Q1 – 2026Q1 | 4,150 | 8.30% | 57.1% |
| Year | n | Housify | Prior engine |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1,203 | 10.11% | 12.79% |
| 2023 | 904 | 7.34% | 10.40% |
| 2024 | 844 | 7.72% | 10.46% |
| 2025 | 931 | 8.19% | 10.66% |
| 2026 YTD | 268 | 7.93% | 8.37% |
| Close comparable sales available | n | Median error |
|---|---|---|
| None | 2,869 | 9.13% |
| 1–2 | 772 | 7.16% |
| 3–5 | 274 | 5.94% |
| 6 or more | 234 | 4.34% |
Walk-forward, each home's own sale excluded, list price never an input (enforced in code: the model refuses to train if a price-derived field is present). Comparable-depth table: the served recipe's research replica, 2022Q1–2026Q1. 2022 includes the market turn.
- List-price blindness. The value model rejects any feature derived from list price, sale price or days on market, and the confidence range is blind too.
- No look-ahead. Every home is valued walk-forward, using only sales before its own, and its own sale is excluded from its comparables.
- Annual, per home. Annual alpha is computed home by home (its annual growth minus the market's over the same hold), then the median is taken. It is never a total divided by an average hold.
- Renovation. Tier tables remove renovations, additions, new builds and flips under six months. The §30 study adds dated permits, and un-permitted homes performed better.
- Market cycle. Alpha is measured against a hedonic market index over the same hold, so a rising market doesn't count as skill.
- Ranking mechanics. Placebo scores, cohort benchmarks and a permutation null. The engine beats all three in both markets.
- Statistical weight. Naples: annual top-vs-bottom spread +14.8 [12.3, 17.2] vs the best benchmark's +8.8 [7.4, 10.7], separated at 4,760 pairs. 30A: 41 of 45 top-flagged buys beat the market against a 57.1% base rate; in the §30 study, 39 of 47 against 56.1%, p = 9.5×10⁻⁵.
- Survivorship, measured. Resale tests can only score homes that resold. So we also marked every flagged and control buy that hasn't resold to today's Housify value. Flagged homes resell at the same rate as everything else (22% vs 23%). Counting every buy, sold or not, 91% of flagged buys are ahead of the market at +5.0%/yr, vs −0.4 for every other buy (see the 30A deal flag tab, split into resold and still held). Unsold homes are marked by the model, so read the gap between groups, not the level.
- Yardstick. Levels depend on the market index. A 30A-wide index reads every tier higher (deals +8.2%/yr); the hedonic index we report adjusts for which neighbourhoods sold. The ranking of tiers is the same on both.
- Current data. All alpha figures were re-run on October 1, 2026 on current sales data, so they can differ slightly from earlier published versions.
- Top-flagged homes resold faster (1.7 vs 2.4 years), which is consistent with genuine buys and also with active flipping. Annual alpha accounts for the shorter hold.
- In the slower 2025–26 market, Certified listings took longer to go under contract than the average listing. The discount is real; it rewards buyers who can act on it.
High-end coastal markets don't price by zip code. Housify models them parcel by parcel.
In a waterfront market, two homes a block apart can differ in value by a factor of three: one fronts open Gulf, one fronts a canal, one sits four rows back with a view someone can build over. Generic models average that away. Housify's proprietary market builder encodes it: every parcel is placed on a measured taxonomy of water, rows, frontage, view and cohort, then rebuilt and verified automatically every week. The figures below are from Naples, our most complex build.
Offset lines are drawn parallel to the open-water shoreline, like contour lines, using Naples' own measured lot depth (144 ft) and row spacing (176 ft). The raw 55 rows roll up into an 18-rung ladder. Price per square foot falls steeply for the first six rungs and then flattens. That break is fitted from the data, and it lands at rung 6 in each of 2015–19, 2020–22 and 2023–26.
- Water class: gulf, bay, canal, lake or none, in precedence order. A parcel can carry up to three. Of 611 open-Gulf parcels, 299 also front a canal, bay or lake.
- Openness of the water: rays fired from the water toward land, oriented to the local shoreline, which swings over 256° in Naples vs 11° on 30A. "Open" means a 60°+ arc within two miles of open sea.
- Forever-view: can the view ever be built out? Neighbours are modelled at their legal setback and height cap on bare-earth elevation, 24 rays per home. Built and measured on 30A, where it runs across 14,060 parcels in about 7 seconds.
- Front-row veto: front rows are checked for obstruction in every direction. 612 candidates were scored and 118 vetoed.
- Geometry over agent fields: MLS labels are checked against the map. An interior canal home tagged "Gulf Frontage" is valued as what it is.
- Parcel lineage: splits, combines and re-keys are tracked across county republishes, so no home silently loses its history.
County appraiser roll, state tax roll, the full MLS back-office feed (≈375 fields, hourly), USGS water and bare-earth elevation, county GIS. The county record is the backbone, because 31.8% of Collier single-family sales never touched the MLS.
The Naples master tables rebuild on schedule in about 26 minutes, verify themselves and promote only if every check passes. Repeat runs are checked against the first and reproduce it exactly.
Each build records its code version, row counts and a fingerprint of every input. Rolling back is a rename, not a rebuild. A missing run is treated as a failure, never a pass.
List-price-blind, every time. Under the industry's 9% "excellent" bar in both markets.
Accuracy isn't the product; it's the foundation the deal signal sits on. Every figure we publish is list-price-blind and walk-forward. Scored that way, most valuation claims look very different from their marketing. Ours are below.
30A is one of the hardest residential markets in the country to value: a coastal strip where a Gulf-front home can trade at more than double the price per square foot of the row behind it. Naples adds canals, bays and a coastline that turns through 256°.
30A, by number of close comparable sales available at the time, 2022Q1–2026Q1, list-blind walk-forward. The remaining error is a comp-scarcity problem, which is exactly where the market builder's taxonomy does the work.
Everything that runs on top of the value.
Every engine is snapshotted before the outcome is known and scored against what actually happened.
Every active listing, every day. Thresholds adapt to market tightness: in a balanced market a Great deal is 10%+ under value, and in a deep buyer's market it's 15%+.
Every value ships with a range that means what it says.
Great-deal, good-deal and fair price points off the Housify value, for fast offer math on every listing.
Every residential parcel scored weekly on equity, holding-cycle position and neighbourhood momentum. This is the off-market pipeline.
Daily ranking of active listings by likelihood of going pending soon, built from deal tier, cohort absorption, momentum and days-on-market velocity.
A trained model scores every active listing daily for the chance of a price cut, with the three reasons behind each call. Alerts fire only on the top-ranked, buy-box matches.
A three-tier comparable hierarchy, the same one the valuation uses. It alerts the moment a truly comparable sale closes nearby.
Tracks where each slice of the market is moving, e.g. the 30A Housing Index at 172 (1Q18 = 100), 12.5% off its 2023 peak.
Institutional-grade market reports, email alerts for new deals, price drops and comp matches, plus farm and listing-readiness scoring for agents.
The market intelligence behind the model, published quarterly.
April 1 – June 30, 2026, single-family, 30A. The full interactive report covers price bands, rows from the water, neighbourhoods, Gulf-front, land, condo and new construction.
| Layer | Median $/sq ft | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Gulf-front | $1,813 | −7.5% |
| 2 | $879 | −13.5% |
| 3 | $770 | −15.8% |
| 4 | $646 | +5.0% |
| 5 | $609 | +8.1% |
| 6 | $450 | +1.9% |
- Volume came back hard (+48.9% transactions) while price per foot held flat. Deal flow returned before prices did.
- Gulf-front: 9 sales, $104.6M, led by a $28M Alys Beach trade at $5,370/sq ft.
- Rows 2–3 repriced 13–16% lower year over year; the report flags both as buy zones.
- Months of inventory at 6.8 (TTM), down from ~12.7 a year earlier.
30A and Naples are the proof. Three more markets by October 31.
Naples was the hard build: canals, bays, boat access, distance-to-pass, open Gulf and a coastline that swings through 256°. Most of its six weeks went into the foundation, not Naples itself. We studied how county GIS, appraiser and MLS data are structured across the country, then built a geospatial engine and a data contract around those patterns. A new market is now a short declaration on that foundation, and it stands up in under a week with the same blind accuracy testing, alpha measurement, predictive engines and reporting.
Connect
The market's MLS feed, county assessor roll and GIS, plus national elevation and water data. The data contract maps each source on arrival.
Build the taxonomy
The market's own geography (coastline, bays, canyons, view corridors) measured from its data and checked by automated gates before anything is served.
Validate blind
Walk-forward accuracy and resale alpha on the market's own history, with placebo controls, before a deal flag goes live.
Deploy
Daily deal tiers, off-market seller likelihood, Drop Watch, offer ladders and quarterly reports, inside a CRM built for your team.
- A should-sell-for number on every house, listed or not, with a calibrated range your offer math can start from.
- Off-market reach. Every parcel is valued nightly and ranked by likelihood to sell, so the pipeline isn't limited to what hits the MLS.
- Skip the losers. Homes Housify rates Fair or Overpriced matched or lagged the market. At your volume, avoiding the bottom deciles is real money.
- Speed. Daily scoring and alerts on your buy box. The deal is in front of your team the day it lists.
- Your own CRM. The full package includes a CRM customised to your brand and workflow: clients, alerts, reports and deal tracking in one place.
- Reporting. Quarterly and annual market reports like the Q2 2026 edition above, branded for you.
Explore every 30A deal → Explore every Naples deal → Talk to Ben McLeod → Request full data room access
Ben McLeod, founder · ben@housify.tech